Question 1

Why are political prediction markets accurate?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate information from diverse participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. Research shows they often outperform polls and expert forecasts because traders incorporate information from multiple sources.

Question 2

What political events can I predict?

Accepted Answer

We offer markets on elections (presidential, congressional, parliamentary), policy decisions, international relations, leadership changes, and major political developments worldwide.

Question 3

How are election markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Election markets resolve based on official certified results. For US elections, we use state certification and Electoral College results. International markets use each country's official election authority.

Question 4

Can I trade during election night?

Accepted Answer

Yes, political markets remain open and tradeable as results come in. Prices update in real-time as new information becomes available, creating dynamic trading opportunities.

Question 5

Are there markets on policy decisions?

Accepted Answer

Yes, we offer markets on legislation, regulatory decisions, court rulings, and policy announcements. These resolve based on official government sources and press releases.

Politics-Prognosemärkte