IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
13% chance
- Volume
- $153.5K
- Liquidity
- $17.9K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Aug 12, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 1, 2027