Negative GDP growth in 2026?
3% chance
- Volume
- $34.1K
- Liquidity
- $907.6
- Ends
- Jan 29, 2027
Description
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Oct 19, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 29, 2027