October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
- Volume
- $31.7K
- Ends
- Nov 29, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Buy |
|---|---|---|
| 97% | ||
| 2% | ||
| <1% | ||
| <1% |
Description
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Oct 18, 2026
- Resolution date
- Nov 29, 2026