Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
10% chance
- Volume
- $3.6M
- Liquidity
- $201.7K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2028
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Oct 19, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 1, 2028