Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
60d 8h
11% chance
- Volume
- $128.6K
- Liquidity
- $21.3K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
Price history
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Oct 18, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 1, 2027