
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?
81% chance
- Volume
- $80.2K
- Liquidity
- $1.9K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
How it resolves
Resolution process
When the market ends, a 3 days dispute period begins. If no one disputes, rewards are distributed automatically.
- Created
- Oct 23, 2026
- Resolution date
- Jan 1, 2027